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Top pick and our conviction Buy
2017-11-15 10:46:16 东方财富网
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研报日期:2017-11-15

  中国国旅(601888)

  Consensus may not fully capture company's growth, short term and long term

  We raise our target price for CITS by 37.5% to RMB55, from RMB40.Management has publicly guided that its duty-free business is likely to seegrowth of over 60% yoy for FY2017. Also, we believe consensus hasn’tfactored in profit from Beijing Airport, the potential opening of a downtownduty-free store and the consolidation of duty-free in Shanghai Airport. Given itsrobust and sustainable growth, high barriers to entry and attractive valuation,CITS has become our conviction Buy for 2018.

  Profit from BCIA should be higher than the consensus estimate

  We expect RMB6.6bn duty-free sales from BCIA (T2 & T3) in 2018. We believethe market is overly concerned with the high concessionaire rate from BeijingAirport: 1) during the transitional 12m, CITS will pay the original concessionairerate agreed with Sunrise, and 2) there is still room for GM improvement, giventhe size-up (CITS’ duty-free GP margin was only c.45% vs. Dufry’s 60% in2016). We estimate RMB623m profit contribution for 2017 and RMB349m for2018. We believe this has not been factored into WIND/Bloomberg consensus.[Deutsche Bank AG]
 

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